SIMULATION operations. Gordon focused on a block diagram interface

SIMULATION
AND MODELLING – MOTIVATION

Modelling
is a method that is used in creation of a virtual representation of a real
world system inclusive of software and hardware. If the basis of the software
components are driven by mathematical relationships then you can simulate this
virtual representation to see how your model will behave given certain
conditions.

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History
and background of modelling

THE PRE-COMPUTER ERA 1777-1975

 The Monte Carlo
method is generally considered to have originated with the Buffon “needle
experiment” in 1777. The experiment is to “throw” needles onto a plane with
equally spaced parallel lines in order to estimate the value of ?.

 These results were
published formulating what is now known as Student’s t-distribution. Due
to incomplete analytical results, he used a crude form of manual simulation to
verify his conjecture about the exact form of the probability density function
for Student’s t-distribution.

 

 THE
FORMATIVE PERIOD (1945–1970)

Here the first
general computers were created such as the ENIAC. In 1950 the
availability of general-purpose electronic computers increased setting the
stage for the rapid prolife-ration of simulation techniques and applications in
other disciplines. Keith Douglas Tocher, a professor of operational research at
the University of Southampton, developed the General Simulation Program (GSP),
the first general-purpose simulator, as a tool for systematically building a
simulation of an industrial plant that comprises a set of machines, each
cycling through states such as busy, idle, unavailable, and failed.

Tocher’s preeminent contributions to simulation include the
three-phase method for timing executives, the first text-book in simulation, The
Art of Simulation (1963), and the wheel chart or activity-cycle diagram
(ACD) in 1964. The ACD became a cornerstone of simulation teaching in the UK
and the core of research in program generators during the 1970s. It is
especially noteworthy that Tocher conceived and implemented an approach to
combined simulation (discrete-event and continuous model execution) well before
its appearance in a US simulation language

Geoffrey Gordon during the period 1960–1961, introduced the
General Purpose System Simulator, which was later renamed the General Purpose
Simulation System (GPSS). GPSS was designed to facilitate rapid simulation
modeling of complex teleprocessing systems involving, for example, urban
traffic control, telephone call interception and switching, airline reservation
processing, and steel-mill operations. Gordon focused on a block diagram
interface because he feared that programming might be too great a challenge for
engineers

Between 159 and 1963 central problems of simulation model
construction were established as

     
Modular design of simulation programs for easy revision;

     
Management of computer memory;

     
Control of error arising from the
discretization of all continuous quantities that is inherent in digital
simulation

     
Design and implementation of an efficient
time-advance mechanism

     
Management of files containing the
simulation’s entities.

 

 

 

The main problems in using
simulation include the strategic problem of designing a simulation
experiment and the following tactical problems on how to run the
simulations specified in the experimental design:

     
The start-up
problem, i.e., determining when a simulation is in equilibrium (steady state)
so that any transients caused by the simulation’s initial condition have died
out;

     
Estimating the
precision (variance) of simulation-based estimators of steady-state
performance; and

     
Performing precise
comparisons of alternative system simulations or the best of a competing set of
alternative systems or system configurations

All this was solved by Conway
through the use of statistical ranking-and-selection procedures, which are now
widely used in practice and are the basis for much ongoing research

 

THE EXPANSION PERIOD (1970-1981)

During this period, those in the field of simulation
developed enhanced modeling tools and analytical tools. Some advances with
respect to analytical work include, for instance, contributions to variate
generation; contributions to output analysis; developments in input modeling;
and the study of modern optimization techniques

importance of computer modelling and simulation

     
Training to enhance motor and operational
skills(and associated decision making skills)

     
Education

     
Evaluating alternative courses of action

     
Acquisition

     
Operational reports

     
Engineering design

     
Prototyping

     
Diagnosis

     
Proof of concept

     
Understanding

In addition
computer modelling and simulation can help as a teaching aid to explain
concepts more clearly or even in help to anticipate future crisis e.g economy
crashes.

Applications
of modelling simulation

     
virtual simulation (i.e., using virtual equipment and real people
(human-in-the-loop) in a simulation study) aircraft simulator for pilot
training

 

     
augmented reality simulation (such as in-flight pilot training
with additional artificial intelligence aircrafts)

     
virtual body for medicine

     
nuclear reactor simulator

     
power plant simulation

     
Simulation for the teaching/learning of dynamic systems (which may
have trajectory and/or structural behavior): simulation of adaptive systems,
time-varying systems, evolutionary systems.

     
simulation in business

     
use of simulation to provide predictive displays (in economy, in
other complex systems)

     
policy modelling and simulation

     
drug modelling and simulation

     
defense acquisition

     
virtual ship (as a platform to integrate several components)

     
earthquake simulation to design better structures: buildings,
bridges

     
chip prototyping

     
engine prototyping

     
on-line use of simulation to compare real-system’s behavior and
simulated behavior to detect anomalies in the functioning of an equipment

     
simulation of safe disposal of nuclear fuel waste (for tens of
thousands of years

     
scientific simulations to understand reality

In addition
to the above stated. Modelling and simulation can be used in schools to
demonstrate aspiring ideas that students have across various subjects. For example
modelling a traffic light system to show flow of cars and transition of colours
of the traffic light, or civil engineers modelling an aspiring house.

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